TASK-FIN-101-04 · Task family
Investment thesis & counter-evidence audit. Research synthesis, assumption testing and scenario analysis.
Overview. Identify and quantify the evidence against the thesis, and state how much of the thesis survives.
The agent is given a written thesis and asked to stress-test it. The evidence partly supports it, but other factors explain much of what the thesis attributes to the company's own actions.
A good answer quantifies the counter-evidence and says how the conclusion changes. Restating the thesis, or rejecting it without numbers, both fail.
Value to the buyer
Trains agents to argue against a convenient conclusion with evidence, which is what buy-side review requires.
Specification. The task family, field by field.
- task_id:
- TASK-FIN-101-04
- domain:
- Investment Research & Valuation
- parent_environment:
- ENV-FIN-101 · Research & Valuation
- target_role:
- Equity Research Analyst
- objective:
- Identify and quantify the evidence against the thesis, and state how much of the thesis survives.
- starting_context:
- The thesis memo, quarterly results and transcripts, an input-cost index and order backlog disclosures.
- tools:
search_filingsget_earnings_transcriptquery_financial_metricsrun_financial_calculationsubmit_research_artifact
- required_actions:
- Extract the thesis's testable claims
- Find evidence for and against each claim
- Quantify alternative explanations
- Write a conclusion that follows from the evidence
- expected_outputs:
- A claim-by-claim assessment
- Quantified counter-evidence
- A revised conclusion
- interaction:
- Single agent with tool access.
- verification:
- Seeded counter-evidence must be found and quantified. Rubrics score the conclusion against the evidence.
- reward:
- Deterministic credit for each piece of counter-evidence found, plus rubric scoring of the conclusion.
- difficulty:
- Calibrated against reference models during acceptance testing
- task_horizon:
- Multi-step research. Execution limits are agreed with the buyer.
- delivery:
- Task instances with seeded evidence sets, reference assessments and verifier code.
- commercial_unit:
- Per validated task instance
Sample prompt. What the agent is asked to do, as a buyer would see it.
A colleague's memo argues that Aster Manufacturing's gross margin rose from 31.0% to 33.4% over the last year because of pricing power, and that margins will keep expanding. Using the filings, transcripts, the input-cost index and backlog disclosures, test the thesis. Quantify any evidence against it, and say what conclusion the evidence supports.
Verification criteria. What the verifier checks, and how.
Claim isolated
The 2.4-point margin rise and the pricing-power attribution are separated as claims.
Input costs
The fall in the input-cost index is found and its effect on margin estimated.
Price evidence
Transcript and segment data on realized prices are used, not management's framing alone.
Backlog
The decline in order backlog is identified as a risk to continued expansion.
Conclusion
States that much of the gain is cost-driven and that expansion isn't supported, with numbers.
Key failure modes. Where agents go wrong on this task.
- Summarizing the memo instead of testing it
- Citing management's explanation as evidence
- Rejecting the thesis without quantifying alternatives
Other task families. The rest of Research & Valuation, on the same FinanceWorld state.
- TASK-FIN-101-01
Point-in-time company research
Financial retrieval, source attribution and evidence reconciliation, using only what was available at the cutoff.
Equity Research Analyst
- TASK-FIN-101-02
Statement normalization & quality of earnings
Accounting interpretation, normalization adjustments and numerical analysis.
Private Equity Associate
- TASK-FIN-101-03
Financial modeling & valuation repair
Spreadsheet modeling, DCF, forecasting and consistent statement linkages.
Investment Banking Analyst